Can an Outlaw take over light beer?

A challenger light lager brand is making waves in the United States

Seemingly, every industry has been disrupted in the past quarter century or so, especially the consumables industry, as we rocket toward endless choices in what to eat and drink.

What we sip on has changed immensely over the last ten years, from Liquid Death’s shake-up of the water industry to the pivot toward better-for-you sodas with brands like Olipop and Poppi and BodyArmor’s reimagining of the sports drink market.

This includes the last 45 years of the beer industry as well, with the slow crawl to eventual sprinting growth of the craft beer industry. That huge boom was, in large part, an effort to move away from corporate light lagers brewed by mega brewers like Miller, Coors, and Anheuser Busch. (Note: All of these disruptors are a function of changing consumer habits and the shift away from the commoditization that took over the US in the early-mid 1900s.)

The one segment of beverages that hasn’t seen any change is the sub-premium-priced light lager. But the past few years have seen a new entry to that category: Outlaw Light Beer.

Outlaw clocks in at 4.2% alcohol-by-volume and 105 calories, not all that far off from brands like Miller Lite. It’s light and smooth, but a little bit maltier with hints of carmel than a typical watery light beers.

The brand from Denver, Colorado, brewed by Tivoli Brewing Company, started in 2023 is now in 40 states and will be nationwide by the end of the year. It’s a fascinating story with an interesting strategy as the beer and overall alcohol industry battles declining sales, so I caught up with the company’s CEO, Ari Opsahl.

In 2021, Opshal, a former Anheuser Busch VP, was approached to help rescue the Tivoli brand, one that dates to 1859 but, after a period of dormancy, was resurrected in 2012 - at the tail end of the craft beer boom expansion of Colorado.

He had hesitations because of the nose dive craft beer has experienced in the past few years.

“I told them, “I think you’re screwed,’” Opshal said, explaining no one else had told them the truth. “I love beer, I love the story, but if you want to resurrect it and bring it back to life, you have to invest, and the strategy I’m going to take is launching a domestic light beer, and we’re launching it in the sub-premium category.”

The sub-premium category is talking about the price, and he planned to take aim at brands like PBR, Natural Light, Keystone Light.

“But we’re going to make it a premium beer at a sub-premium price,” he conned.

That brings up various major problems, namely the cost efficiency a small brewery like Tivoli has compared to the mega brewers. He said brewers like Anheuser Busch can make the beer at 10% of what it costs Outlaw. (Quick history lesson: brewers like AB started making adjunct lagers - using cheaper ingredients like rice and corn that also thin out body and flavor, making them more palatable for mass consumption - in the late 1800s when there were thousands of breweries in the US. Eventually, adjunct lagers ruled the US, and by the 1970s, there were fewer than 80 US brewers - a number now close to 10,000.)

Well, his message and plan won. In 2022, they developed the liquid, brand, and strategy before rolling it out in Colorado in 2023. According to Opshal, it was a quick success, and the major beer distributor Republic National Distributing acquired the sales rights from the existing distributor deal.

As Outlaw tested the waters in Colorado’s neighboring states later in 2023, chains like Walmart and Circle K knocked on the door. In 2024, the beer reached 40 states, and Opshal said it will be to all 50 by the end of 2025.

“There are other entries trying to hit the light lager category, but they’re pricing it way above the domestic category,” Opshal said. “If you’re trying to pull someone from Keystone or Coors or Bud Light to try another brand, that consumer isn’t going to trade up in price. It has to be the same or less, and if they try it and like it, they’ll continue to drink it.”

There are brands like Montucky Cold Snack, which I grew fond of while living in Las Vegas, and Kirkland’s got a great, affordable Helles Lager brewed by the venerable Deschutes in Oregon.

And more so than ever, price is key in this conversation. Craft beer surged because people wanted different. That’s why these challenger brands in other beverage verticals are growing, people are thirsty for new and different.

But light beer is light beer, and brands like Bud Light and Miller Lite are entrenched and cheap. Brand loyalty in many sectors has eroded, but the light beer affordability is hard to swap especially as the rest of the grocery bill grows. (Editor’s note: CNBC’s Jim Kramer this week highlighted Outlaw’s potential with America’s No. 1 selling beer, Mexico’s Modelo, about to see price increases because of tariffs. And apparently, Opshal will be on the show soon.)

Outlaw recently made it to Michigan, and I found a 24-pack for approximately $19. It’s got quite a bit more flavor than the brands it aims to unseat, so I can see its upsell.

But brands like Budweiser and Miller are synonymous with beer in a huge portion of America. What does Opshal see as the opportunity to unseat those? While on the phone, he did some quick napkin math on a Google search.

Photo by Esperanza Doronila on Unsplash

According to his Google search, just one of the light lager brands, Bud Light, sold 25 million barrels of beer. That means approximately 8.2 billion 12-ounce cans of beer.

“This is enormous, and that’s just one of the major brands,” he said. “What gets me excited about this is, that’s our runway. I dream big. I do not see any reason why Outlaw Light could not be the next Coors Light, Bud Light within the US.

“Some people say, “Are you out of your mind?’ I say, “Why not?’”

Interesting Reads of the Week

I have fond memories of my mom mixing up some Crystal Light in the kitchen as a kid. Well, Kraft Heinz is rolling out a Crystal Light Hard Seltzer. The Wall Street Journal took look at it.

The Business of Fashion dives into the “surge in wellness beverages” like beauty waters and protein sodas.

As we covered a few weeks ago, there continues to be a flurry of news around how President Donald Trump’s tariffs affect the American booze industry. The Guardian took a specific look at Brown-Forman’s, maker of Jack Daniel’s, difficulties in Canada as provinces yank it off the shelves.